Well, what a chaotic week we've had - in a smaller way at home as the decorating project continues bumping along, but in a rather larger way across the country as a whole, as we really don't seem to know what sort of government we are about to get. I'm used to seeing one party win and that being the end of it. Apparently we have had a hung parliament before during my lifetime, but I think that I can be forgiven for not remembering it - I was only one at the time!
It seems to me that one thing that we need to think about is some sort of electoral reform. The way our constituency system and first past the post concept operates just doesn't appear to be fit for purpose. Perhaps it would be ok if we had a two party system, but we don't. About a third of the people who voted decided against either labour or the conservatives as their first choice. The thing that really struck me that demonstrated the peculiarity of the current system was an opinion poll a few days before the election, which indicated that the liberal democrats were expected to poll one percent fewer votes than the labour party. Whilst this didn't turn out to be the case in the end, the opinion poll was extrapolated into seats in parliament, and it showed Labour getting about 250 seats and the Liberals getting about 80. So, three times as many seats for one percent more votes. How can that be right! Apparently, it is because the Liberals essentially suffer under the current system for having their vote too spread out! They are too good at coming second in lots of seats, and under the current system that counts for nothing.
It's interesting to speculate why this. I certainly don't profess to be an expert in this, but I wonder if it reflects the fact that the Liberals are something of a younger party than the other two. They have been successful in building up support across the county, and they have done this roughly evenly from a geographical perspective. There aren't many areas of the country that would be considered Liberal heartlands. But, there are definitely parts of the map which would be described as Labour or Conservative areas, reflecting the fact that there is a long tradition of certain seats always being blue or red, and having been that way for generations. Prime Ministers and policies may come and go, but you can pretty much bank on what election outcomes will be in those locations. So, if this is the case, it would seem that we as a country will be very slow to change, and it will take a generation or two for a new or younger party to get a proper foothold.
So, if the conclusion is that the system needs changing, then the challenge would be to find something better. Again, I'm not the expert here, but it must be worth looking into the alternatives. A form of proportional representation or alternative voting has to be worthy of consideration. Perhaps we need to recognise that we are trying to achieve too much with a single vote at the moment - we are trying to elect a local representative as well as express a view as to who should be running the country. (By the way, well done to the reliably eccentric voters of Brighton who scored the country's first Green MP!) Should we think about separating out the local and national bits in the vote? The whole TV debate thing, which I welcome as a good idea, does make us focus at a national level and it could be said makes the process a little more presidential. If voters were able to put a cross directly against the name of Brown, Cameron or Clegg, then could that make a difference? It was certainly noticeable in our area that there was very little or no campaigning at the local level. To be honest, as I entered the booth and picked up the pencil, I could not have named a single one of the candidates in my constituency. If they didn't have party names alongside them as well, I would have been really stuck! I realise that a system which allowed people to vote in a Prime Minister of one party but a parliament made up mostly of others could lead to some challenges, but then again we're not exactly in a simple situation now, are we?
And, what do we do with the situation that we find ourselves in now? Nick Clegg is the one who seems to hold the balance of power. He's been on something of a roller-coaster over the last few weeks. First the leap in ratings after the first TV debate, the real prospect of polling more votes in total than Labour, then a slight decrease as the election got closer, followed by the disappointment of going down by a few seats after all that hype. Now, at the end of it all, despite the disappointment, it is essentially him and his party who will decide what sort of government we will have. Seems to me that he has three choices, all of which are not without their problems:
- First choice - do a deal with the Conservatives. Pro - we end up with a reasonably strong government. If we take the sum of the Conservative and Liberal seats, we end up with a clear majority. Con - are the parties close enough in policy terms to be able to thrash out a deal which is plausible and sustainable? Seems a bit of a stretch to me.
- Second choice - do a deal with Labour. Pro - feels like a more believable fit to me, but that may just be my lack of proper knowledge of the parties. Con - a difficult one to sell given how badly Labour did. Would we accept some sort of deal that kept Labour in power after the results we have seen? And anyway, would there be any point? The combined Labour and Liberal seats would sum to a few more than the Conservatives, but not an overall majority.
- Third choice - don't do a deal with anyone. Pro - could be seen as staying true to Liberal values and not accepting compromises on key policies. Con - could also be seen as blocking a workable way forward. Also, from the Liberal's perspective, wouldn't this also be a risky move? The most likely outcome would be a minority Conservative government. Aren't minority governments rather unstable things meaning that we could be looking at another general election before very long? If we do, I wonder whether voters will adopt their own form of alternative voting, essentially saying to themselves that we clearly can't have a Liberal government, so we need to make a Labour or Conservative choice. Not a good outcome for the Liberals.
So, a muddle through and through! The next few days will continue to be interesting. I wonder how much longer Gordon will continue to claim squatter's rights in No. 10!