Tuesday 8 January 2019

Fifth Risk

I don't know much about the workings of government: not our own, and certainly not that of the United States. For any democratically elected government, one of the biggest problems seems to be that it requires long-term thinking. It is asked to take on some very long-term projects to develop the country, and to take some long-term decisions about how best to look after its population. However, politics keeps getting in the way. No sooner have the elected officials managed to get their head round the challenge that they face, the electorate have booted them out and given the job to someone else.

This is where, putting politics aside for a minute, a good handover becomes absolutely critical. As I say, my knowledge in these matters is seriously lacking, but I presume that the British civil service gets to provide the continuity and a large amount of the knowledge transfer here. I get the impression that the number of new political appointments made when an administration changes in the UK may be fewer than are made when things change in the US, and if this is the case, having an orderly and structured handover in the US becomes even more important.

This is where Michael Lewis' fascinating book 'The Fifth Risk' comes in. As he explains, during the Obama administration, new legislation had been passed specifically requiring the outgoing teams in all government departments to prepare for the arrival of their successors. So, in their final year, each Obama department invested heavily in this task, drafting thousands of pages of useful documentation, and preparing presentations to give to the new teams.

Then Trump won the election.

And the outgoing teams waited for the Trump transition teams to come in.

And no-one showed up.

The Fifth Risk explains just some of the important, and largely unnoticed, work that a big government does on behalf of its citizens. It focuses on three departments: Energy, Commerce, and Agriculture. These departments (amongst many other things) help to make sure that the population are safe from nuclear weapons, that people get fed, and that people get as much warning as possible from natural disasters.

Unfortunately it was left up to the new president to decide who the right people would be to hold some of the most responsible and important jobs in the country. And it took him a long time to decide, and a transition didn't really happen. In the end, it seemed like the US ended up with the Department of Energy being run by someone who had previously forgotten about it and suggested it should be abolished, the Department of Commerce being run by someone who thought is was all about business (which it isn't) and then not being very interested in what it does do, and the NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) being run by someone who owns a private weather company - spot the massive conflict of interest.

Overall a fascinating read, and should be considered necessary reading to avoid voting for a president (certainly for a second time) without appreciating the consequences.