Wednesday 20 May 2020

Hope Springs

The pandemic is affecting millions of people around the world right now, and this post is not meant to trivialise things, but I want to talk about a subject close to my heart - Disney.

As a huge global corporation, Disney, like many other companies, has suffered badly at the hands of Covid-19. A very large part of their business model relies of people gathering in groups, whether to go to theme parks, to go to the movies watch sports, and so on. Really their only silver lining has been a quicker than expected uptake (including this household) in subscriptions for Disney+, but that always was expected to be, and still is, a loss-making enterprise at this early stage post launch.

Bob Iger thought that he was going to be able to retire (thankfully, I think, having decided against a tilt at the White House), having completed his 'Ride of a Lifetime', his long legacy complete. Now, however, he finds himself well and truly back in the trenches with New Bob, working through the crisis, making sure that the Mouse is able to ride out the storm.

From an investor's perspective, it looks like the market has as much confidence in Disney as in any other US public company. Having just taken a quick look at the numbers, the Dow Jones average fell from its high point in mid Feb (29,500) to a low point in late March that was 63% of the high (18,500) and is now back at 83% (24,500). The Disney share price looks similar - 140 in mid Feb, falling to 61% in mid March (86) and back to 85% (119) now.

From a traveller's perspective, the position isn't so clear at the moment. Shanghai Disney reopened last week, at a much reduced capacity, but as yet there is no indication of when US (or Paris) parks will reopen, along with the associated hotels. Disney Springs opened today, but again on a restricted basis, and with none of the Disney-owned facilities opening, just the third party ones. There seems to be a plan to open some of the Disney facilities next week, which seems encouraging. However, presumably the main draw will be locals, as there can't be many tourists around, as none of the hotels, parks, or other attractions are open.

As for our own travel plans, we had hoped to arrange a trip somewhere in the summer, but that won't be happening now. We had some DVC points banked into our current use year, but it looks like we may well lose them as they will expire at the end of September. We will have to look forward to a later trip - maybe 2021.